The Indian economy grew at 4.9 per cent in 2013-14 despite a very low base of last year. The growth for 2012-13 was recently revised downwards to 4.5 per cent from the earlier estimate of 5.0 per cent. Had last year’s figures not been revised, GDP growth for 2013-14 would have been even lower at 4.4 per cent. However, the full year figures for 2013-14 suggest that growth in the second half of the fiscal would have improved to around 5.2 per cent from 4.6 per cent in the first half.
Agriculture and exports formed the silver lining for 2013-14. Above normal monsoons lifted agricultural growth to 4.6 per cent from 1.4 per cent in 2012-13. Export growth also picked up to 8.0 per cent due to improved global demand and a depreciated rupee. Industry growth weakened further in 2013-14 to sub 1% levels, despite a mild pick-up in growth of utilities and construction output. Mining output fell for a second consecutive year. Although the ban on iron-ore mining in Karnataka and Orissa has been lifted, it will take time for firms to obtain relevant clearances and resume production. Exports failed take the manufacturing growth into positive territory due to headwinds from domestic demand and a standstill in investments. This is the first time since 199-92, that the manufacturing sector has experienced a contraction. In 1991-92, manufacturing output fell by 2.4%. Despite the boost to rural incomes from above-normal monsoons, private consumption growth slowed to 4.1 per cent in 2013-14 from 5.0 per cent in the previous year, due to high retail inflation and slowing income growth.
This is a statistical projection of IMF in its DEC. review
of world economic data. The only market which is robustly showing a growth
momentum is the India alone. Even the China is lagging behind us and the most
important point here to note is this growth is projected when our base is much
more bigger, stronger than we were in 1998 - 2003. So as per the analysis the
penetration of this growth would be more deeper and the outcome would become
more sharper as well as wider compare to the growth what we saw in 2001 – 2008.
Most importantly this growth even coming from US and euro
zone where we are exporting goods is more sustainable as it would be a demand
driven growth.
Hopefully if we get a better and growth oriented
government then the no.s I feel would be increase by at least 1% - 2% YoY.
At this moment of time when our market are almost on the verge of starting a
new journey I feel this is one of the biggest reason why FII’s are having the
confidence on us.
However these figures really speak some different picture,I am sure any government will get form but having clarity of good governance as well as business oriented approach would really lead India in the world space with great fortune. china is having its own issue and what is going on in china because of structure nobody understand.